Penelope Trunk knows something about risk. A nationally syndicated columnist, Ms. Trunk shocked the business community when she revealed intimate details of her personal life on her blog. At the time, many weren't sure this was the right move, but the blog shot up in popularity and eventually garnered over 30,000 subscribers.

    If not for that loyal following, Ms. Trunk might not have been able to make a case for her current venture, Brazen Careerist （BrazenCareerist.com）, an online professional network for Generation Y.

    Launching a new company is a perilous endeavor, but Ms. Trunk thought the risk was worth it. 'This world isn't set up for writers to get anywhere,' she says. 'Although I went into massive debt and ended up sacrificing my marriage, it was essential that I take my career into my own hands.'

    As a result, she is no longer dependent on publications for her livelihood and has achieved one of her lifetime goals -- to serve as a mentor to twenty-something employees.

    Big Risks, Big Rewards

    If you think about it, most accomplished people in our culture are entrepreneurs who have taken big risks to net proportionally high rewards.

    Tough as it is for cautious people like me to accept, if you don't occasionally take calculated gambles, you won't get ahead as quickly as those who do. You will also never get over your fear of the unknown, and life will be predictable and dull.

    How do you go about deciding if a career risk is necessary and will bear fruit?

    First, it helps to think long term. Where do you want your career to be in five years, and what actions will you have to take to make sure you get there? Next, clearly define the challenge and the opportunity -- or the upside if the risk goes well.

    Then, consider the downside. Will the worst-case scenario be career-ending, or something that can be overcome?

    What's Your Backup Plan?

    Finally, what are some clues to assess if the risk is going bad, and what is your backup plan if your risk isn't successful?

    In thinking through these questions, you might determine, for example, that quitting your well-paying job and spending your savings to pursue an invention idea isn't a risk you find tolerable.

    The smartest risks have a limited downside and a huge upside. They involve research and the counsel of experienced people -- but also the willingness to step back and let the cards fall where they may.

    Believe that you've made the right choice, and have faith that everything will turn out all right in the end. Insecurity and negativity won't serve you well, because you'll be constantly holding your breath, waiting for things to fall apart.

    Speaking of which, if a risk doesn't work out, don't let it stop you from taking similar actions in the future. It's normal to feel disappointment and even embarrassment. But it's essential that you pick yourself up and move on.

    Take stock of what went wrong and make a note to do it differently next time. There is no shorter path to career fulfillment.

    佩尼洛普？特伦克（Penelope Trunk）对风险有些了解。作为一位全国知名的专栏作家，特伦克在博客中自揭私生活的隐密细节，这让商界震惊不已。当时，很多人都怀疑这是否是明智之举，不过她的博客却大受欢迎，最终吸引了3万多名注册用户。

    如果不是有这些忠心的用户，特伦克或许根本无法找出一个说得通的理由推出自己的网站Brazen Careerist （BrazenCareerist.com）.这是一个面向80后的在线专业网络。

    本文作者Alexandra Levit成立新公司是个危险的举动，不过特伦克认为值得冒这样的风险。她说，这个世界并不利于作家的发展；尽管我陷入了重重债务，最后还牺牲了我的婚姻，但重要的是我将职业把握在了自己手里。

    结果是，她的生计不再依赖出版物，并且已经实现了一个人生目标──当20多岁年轻员工的导师。

    高风险，高回报

    你可以想一想，在我们的社会里，大部分有成就的人都是冒了很大的风险、并相应地获得高回报的企业家。

    这让像我这样的谨慎之人难以接受，不过如果你不偶尔地在审时度势后冒些险，你就不能像别人一样很快进步。此外，你永远无法克服对未知的恐惧，你的人生一眼就能看到底，了无生趣。

    你该如何确定一项职业上的冒险是必要的、会有所收获？

    首先，要放眼长远。你希望自己的职业生涯5年后是什么样子的，你将必须采取什么措施来确保实现这一目标？其次，明确定义面临的挑战和机遇──或如果冒险成功了，会有什么好处。

    然后，考虑不利方面。如果出现最糟糕的情况，是否会葬送了自己的职业生涯，还是能够克服？

    你的B计划是什么？

    最后，你要评估哪些线索来得知冒险正在走向失败。如果冒险不成功，你的B计划又是什么？

    好好想想这些问题，你可能会发现，辞掉自己的高薪工作、把存款花到一个发明想法上，这样做的风险超出了自己的承受力。

    最明智的冒险"弊"有限而"利"很大。需要研究、向有经验的人咨询，还要甘愿在必要的时候退一步、顺其自然。

    坚信你的选择是正确的，并笃信一切终究会圆满成功。不安全感和消极态度不会给你带来裨益，因为你要不断屏住呼吸、等着事情失败。

    说到这儿，如果冒险没有成功，不要让它阻碍你今后采取类似的措施。感觉失望甚至尴尬是很正常的。不过重要的是，你要振作精神，继续前进。

    从错误中汲取教训，避免下次重蹈覆辙。职场成功没有捷径可寻。