First it will become wireless and ubiquitous, crawling into the woodwork and perhaps even under our skin. Eventually, it will disappear

    The Internet seems to have just arrived, so how can we possibly imagine what will replace it? In truth, early versions of the Net have been around since the 1960s and '70s, but only after the mid-1990s did it begin to have a serious public impact. Since 1994, the population of users has grown from about 13 million to more than 300 million around the world. About half are in North America, and most--despite significant progress in rolling out high-speed access--still reach the Internet by way of the public telephone network.

    What will the Internet be like 20 years from now?

    Like the rest of infrastructure, the Internet will eventually seem to disappear by becoming ubiquitous. Most access will probably be via high-speed, low-power radio links. Most handheld, fixed and mobile appliances will be Internet enabled. This trend is already discernible in the form of Internet-enabled Cell Phones and personal digital assistants. Like the servants of centuries past, our household helpers will chatter with one another and with the outside help.

    At some point, the armada of devices we strap to our bodies like tools on Batman's belt will coalesce into a smaller number of multifunction devices. Equipped with radio links, a pda can serve as an appliance-control remote, a digital wallet, a Cell Phone, an identity badge, an e-mail station, a digital book, a pager and perhaps even a digital camera. There is sure to be a catchy name for this all-purpose Internet-enabled thingy, perhaps Wireless Internet Digital Gadget for Electronic Transactions, or WIDGET.

    So many appliances, vehicles and buildings will be online by 2020 that it seems likely there will be more things on the Internet than people. Internet-enabled cars and airplanes are coming online, and smart houses are being built every day. Eventually, programmable devices will become so cheap that we will embed them in the cardboard boxes into which we put other things for storage or shipping. These passive "computers" will be activated as they pass sensors and will be able to both emit and absorb information. Such innovations will facilitate increasingly automatic manufacturing, inventory control, shipping and distribution. Checkout at the grocery store will be fully automatic, as will payment via your digital wallet.

    The advent of programmable, nanoscale machines (see "Will Tiny Robots Build Diamonds One Atom at a Time?" in this issue) will extend the Internet to things the size of molecules that can be injected under the skin, leading to Internet-enabled people. Such devices, together with Internet-enabled sensors embedded in clothing, will avoid a hospital stay for medical patients who would otherwise be there only for observation. The speech processor used today in cochlear implants for the hearing impaired could easily be connected to the Internet; listening to Internet radio could soon be a direct computer-to-brain experience!

    The Internet will undergo substantial alteration as optical technologies allow the transmission of many trillions of bits per second on each strand of the Internet's fiber-optic backbone network. The core of the network will remain optical, and the edges will use a mix of access technologies, ranging from radio and infrared to optical fiber and the old twisted-pair copper telephone lines. By then, the Internet will have been extended, by means of an interplanetary Internet backbone, to operate in outer space.

    How will this pervasive Internet access affect our daily lives? More and more of the world's information will be accessible instantly and from virtually anywhere. In an emergency, our health records will be available for remote medical consultation with specialists and perhaps even remote surgery. More and more devices will have access to the global positioning system, increasing the value of geographically indexed databases. Using GPS with speech-understanding software that is emerging today, we will be able to get directions from our WIDGETS as easily as we once got them at a filling station. One can imagine driving in the car, asking our WIDGET for the name of the nearest Thai restaurant, getting an answer, asking for reservations and then for directions. Indeed, the car may be smart enough to handle the entire transaction and drive us there itself.

    Is there any downside to a society suffused with information and the tools to process it?

    Privacy will come at a premium. Enormous quantities of data about our daily affairs will flow across the Internet, working to make our lives easier. Despite our penchant for giving up privacy in exchange for convenience, our experiences online may make us yearn for the anonymity of the past. Who should have access to our medical records and our financial information, and how will that access be controlled? Will we be able to search and use the vast information stored online without leaving trails of personal cookie crumbs scattered across the Net? How will Business transactions be taxed, and in what jurisdictions will disputed electronic transactions be resolved? How will intellectual property be protected? How will we prove that contracts were signed on a certain date, or that their terms and conditions have not been electronically altered? There are technical answers for many of these questions, but some will require international agreements before they can be resolved.

    Perhaps even more daunting, in the face of Internet-wide virus attacks, is the realization that we will depend in larger and larger measure on the network's functioning reliably. Making this system of millions of networks sufficiently robust and resilient is a challenge for the present generation of Internet engineers. Failure could portend an increasingly fragile future. But I am an optimist. I believe we are going to live in a world abundant with information and with the tools needed to use it wisely. 

    它钻进木制家具甚至我们的皮肤,它无拘无束,无处不在.最后,它将无影无踪.

    似乎互联网时代才刚刚来临,我们怎么可能想到什么会取代互联网?实际上,早期的网络在19世纪六七十年代已经出现,只不过在1995年之后才开始产生巨大的影响.从1994年开始,世界范围的网络用户从130万增加到3000万.其中一半在北美,并且大多数人--对于高速接入的重大进步视而不见--仍然用公共电话网接入互联网.

    20年后的互联网是什么样子的?

    类似基础设施的剩余部分,互联网会因无处不在而消失.大多数可能会是通过高速,低功率的无线电接入.大多数手持的,固定的,移动的应用也将可以使用互联网.这种趋势通过手机的互联网应用和个人数字助理已经可以隐约看到.就像过去几百年中的仆人一样,我们的家庭主妇助手会对另一个助手和外援喋喋不休.

    在某些方面,我们随身携带的大量设备像蝙蝠侠腰带上的工具那样合并成集多种功能于一体而变得小巧.拥有无线电接入功能的个人数字助手可以像一个控制应用的遥控,一个数字钱包,一个手机,一个身份令牌,一个电子邮件站,一本数字书籍,一张纸甚至可能是一个数字相机.为这个万能的互联网应用东东起个容易记住的名字是必须的,可以是电子交易用无线互联数字器件或者"小东西".

    如此多的应用,汽车和建筑到2020年将在线以至于互联网出现的新东西比上网的人还要多.可用互联网的汽车和飞机即将上线,智能住房每天都在建造.最终,可编程的设备会便宜到我们可以把它们嵌入薄纸板盒子,用来存放其他东西.这些可以收发信息的消极的"电脑"通过传感器激活.这样的创新日益方便了自动制造,清单控制,船运和分配.食品杂货商店结帐台是全自动的,用你的数字钱包付账.

    可编程的纳米级机器把互联网扩展到可以皮下注射的分子级应用,产生出拥有互联网应用功能的人.这些设备同互联网应用传感器一起嵌入衣物,使病人不在医院同样可以接受观察.在听力受损的人耳内植入话语处理器,可以轻易连接到互联网;听互联网无线电不久将成为一个直接由电脑到人脑的体验!

    互联网将会经历物质性的改变,因为光学技术使互联网的骨干光纤网络的每一股都可以传输每秒几兆比特的数据.网络核心仍将是光学的,而从无线电,红外线到光纤和老式的电话双绞铜线的边际,都将采用混合处理技术.到时候,互联网将会通过行星间的骨干网在外太空运行.

    这个无孔不入的互联网进程将会怎样影响我们的生活?越来越多的信息可以从能看到的任何地方即时获得.在急诊中,我们的健康记录可以从遥远的医学专家顾问甚至遥远的外科医生那里得到.越来越多的设备拥有全球卫星定位系统,为地理检索数据库提供信息.带有能听懂人话软件的全球卫星定位系统正在涌现,我们能像在信息站那样轻易地从我们的"小东西"得到方位.你可以想象一边开着车,一边向"小东西"询问最近的旅店,得到回复,预订房间再询问怎么走.的确,如果车能自己处理全程的交易并带我们到目的地,那我们不得不说它是相当智能的.

    这对于弥漫着信息和处理信息工具的社会没有负面影响吗?

    个人隐私将被投保.有关我们日常事务的海量信息在互联网上纵横交错,使我们的生活更加容易.尽管我们喜欢用隐私换取便利,我们的网络经历可能让我们怀念大家都匿名的过去.谁应当看到我们的健康记录和我们的财政信息,这种行为该如何控制?我们能不能在网络上搜索和使用大量的信息存储,而不在网上留下蛛丝马迹?商业交易怎样征税,带有争论的电子交易在司法中如何定夺?知识产权如何保护?我们如何证明合同在约定的时间签署,或者他们的条款和条件没有被修改过?这些问题都有技术方面的支持,但是其中一些在确定前需要得到国际社会的认同.

    或许甚至更耸人听闻的是,面对互联网的病毒攻击,我们意识到我们将需要越来越大的尺度衡量网络功能可靠性.使百万网络系统足够强健和富有弹性对当代互联网工程师来说是一个挑战.失败将意味着日益脆弱的将来.但我是一个乐观主义者.我相信我们将生活在一个充满信息和需要广泛使用的工具的世界里.