Inflation or deflation?

    Even the experts can't agree whether rising or falling prices lie in our future.

    That leaves investors in quandary: how to construct a portfolio at a time of great uncertainty. A wrong bet could be devastating. If your portfolio is built for deflation, for example, your assets will slump if the country instead experiences a bout of inflation

    The answer is to prepare for the economic scenario you think is most likely, and then build in some insurance in case you are wrong.

    'If you want to win the war,' says Rich Rosso, a financial consultant at Charles Schwab, 'you have to own both sides of the fight to some degree.'

    Such an approach necessarily means some investments will suffer no matter how the economy turns. That is OK: Buying insurance doesn't mean you actually want to use it.

    Here are three portfolios, each with built-in insurance. The first will do best in an inflationary period but won't be crushed if deflation instead rules the day. The second is for investors who fear deflation, but want some protection against potential inflation -- even if it is down the road. And the third is aimed at investors who believe the economy will muddle through without severe inflation or deflation.

    Inflation

    If you believe all the government spending in response to the financial crisis will ultimately beget inflation, you want a portfolio that thrives in a period of surging prices.

    Commodities are the primary play, because everything from oil and corn to copper and pork bellies should gain. Plus, commodities -- particularly gold -- hedge against the dollar, offering a 2-for-1 benefit if a weak dollar accompanies inflation, as some expect.

    Since commodities contracts can be a hassle for individual investors, consider a fund such as Pimco's CommodityRealReturn Strategy Fund, which offers exposure to a broad swath of industrial and agricultural commodities.

    Though it seems counterintuitive, cash can do pretty well, too. The Federal Reserve would likely fight rising inflation by pushing up short-term interest rates, allowing investors with cash to capture the escalating rates through short-term certificates of deposit and money-market accounts.

    Michele Gambera, chief economist at Ibbotson Associates, says his research shows that in the last five bouts of meaningful inflation, returns on cash essentially matched the inflation rate, meaning it isn't losing its purchasing power. Online banks and local credit unions tend to offer the highest rates.

    Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, are an obvious investment since their principal adjusts upward along with inflation. TIPS exposure is available through mutual funds, such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, though Steven Fox, director of forecasting at Russell Investments, notes that holding individual bonds to maturity is more effective as an inflation hedge since 'the majority of the inflation protection comes when the inflated principal is repaid.' Individual TIPS are available through brokerage firms or TreasuryDirect.gov.

    Sharp inflation is generally a negative for stocks, because rising interest rates potentially pinch corporate profits and undermine economic growth. But a few stocks will likely do fine. Start with energy and metals stocks because higher prices for their commodities will boost earnings, says Mark Kiesel, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco. Include as well U.S. firms with pricing power, such as regulated utilities, domestic pipeline companies and manufacturers of specialty materials. Examples of companies to consider: miners such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold and energy giant Exxon Mobil, or companies indirectly tied to commodity prices, such as driller Diamond Offshore Drilling, farm-equipment company Deere and seed supplier Monsanto.

    -- Insurance Component: Long-term Treasury bonds and municipal bonds.

    Both will likely soar in value amid deflation because their long period of fixed payments would be an attractive source of income as prices for goods and services broadly fall, and as paychecks shrink. And Treasurys, in particular, would likely become a haven for foreign investors, further pushing up their price.

    Deflation

    Portfolio preparation is easier for deflationists: Put a chunk of money into long-term Treasury bonds and much of the rest into cash and some municipal bonds.

    If broad-based deflation materializes, long-term Treasurys are likely to surge. The bonds' fixed-income stream, meanwhile, would be worth increasingly more relative to falling consumer prices.

    Some investment-grade municipal bonds could serve a similar role while also providing tax advantages for high-income earners. But beware: Deflation would likely mean some taxing authorities struggle to service bonds reliant on a specific income stream, like user fees. Instead, stick to 'investment-grade bonds tied to necessary services like water and sewage, power or necessary government offices like, say, a courthouse building,' says Marilyn Cohen, president of bond-investment firm Envision Capital.

    Round out your deflation portfolio with a big slug of cash. Though it won't generate much of a return in a low-rate, deflationary environment, cash in the bank will gain value as prices fall.

    -- Insurance Component: Commodities react most drastically to surprise inflation, so they should be part of your insurance. Add in TIPS, too, and stocks geared 'toward consumer-staple companies,' says Ibbotson's Mr. Gambera. If inflation arises, companies such Coca-Cola, tobacco giant Altria, and toothpaste maker Colgate-Palmolive will have some pricing power.

    Goldilocks Economy

    Maybe, just maybe, world bankers will get this right, and the economy will experience neither severe inflation nor severe deflation.

    'We think most likely the central banks of the world will get this close enough to right that we will settle in close' to a relatively benign inflation rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%, says Aaron Gurwitz, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth.

    In such a 'Goldilocks' scenario -- where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold -- 'risky assets would do best, so equities and bonds with some equity characteristics should receive the emphasis,' says Scott Wolle, portfolio manager of the AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund.

    That means broad exposure to large-cap and small-cap U.S. stocks through funds such as the Vanguard 500 Index Fund or the Bridgeway Small-Cap Value fund; and exposure to developed and emerging markets through funds like the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund （mainly developed markets）, and the T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund.

    For the bond component, pick a fund such as the Fidelity Total Bond fund that largely owns high-grade, intermediate-term corporate bonds and mortgages, along with government and agency debt.

    -- Insurance Component: Just in case the Goldilocks scenario is wrong, you will need insurance against either inflation or deflation. Pick up inflation protection through a commodity ETF, and deflation protection with long-term Treasurys. Cash also is OK in either situation.

    接下来等着我们的会是通货膨胀还是通货紧缩？

    即便是专家也对物价到底要涨还是要跌看法不一。

    这就给投资者出了一个难题：在经济前景如此不明朗的时局下，该如何构建自己的投资组合。下错了注，受到的打击将是致命的。比如，你的组合是基于对通货紧缩的预期，那么假使发生了通货膨胀，你的资产便会大幅缩水。

    最佳方案就是，按你认为最有可能出现的经济状况来进行投资，同时采取一定的保险措施。

    嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）的金融咨询师里奇？罗索（Rich Rosso）说，要想赢得战争的胜利，对于作战双方你得多少都投点资。

    采取这种投资方式的话，不管经济形势如何，你都会有部分资产受损。没问题：买保险并不意味着你非用它不可。

    以下三种投资组合均考虑了内在的保险要素。第一种组合在通货膨胀时期表现最佳，遭遇通货紧缩时却也不致崩盘。第二种适于那些预期通货紧缩、同时也希望能够应对通货膨胀的投资者──即便会遭遇缩水。第三种针对的则是那些认为经济发展温和、既不会有严重的通胀也不会有严重通缩的投资者。

    通货膨胀型投资

    如果你认为政府应对经济危机的一应开销最终会导致通货膨胀，那么你肯定希望自己的投资组合在物价上涨时能有良好表现。

    商品期货可以是投资的重头，因为到时候原油、粮食、铜、猪腩的价格都会上涨。而且，大宗商品──尤其是黄金──可对冲美元贬值，有人预计，在美元疲软兼通胀的形势下，投资黄金可以带来双倍的收益。

    由于大宗商品期货对于个人投资者而言很麻烦，不妨考虑投资基金，比如太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）的商品实际收益策略基金，该基金涵盖了多种工农业大宗商品。

    还有一个选择就是现金投资，乍听起来好像很不可思议，不过现金投资也可以有不俗的表现。通货膨胀后美联储（Fed）极有可能会采取提高短期利率的应对措施，投资者的短期存单及货币市场账户都会有不错的利息。

    Ibbotson Associates首席经济学家米歇尔？冈博拉（Michele Gambera）说，他的研究显示，在过去五次影响深远的通货膨胀中，存储现金的回报同通货膨胀率基本是相抵的，也就是现金的购买力并未减少。网上银行及各地的信用合作社通常提供的利率最高。

    财政部通货膨胀保值债券（Treasury inflation-protected securities,简称TIPS）显然是个不错的选择，其本金会随通货膨胀率的上升而上升。可以通过一些共同基金来操作，比如Vanguard通货膨胀保值证券基金，不过Russell Investments的预测主管斯蒂文？福克斯（Steven Fox）说，个人持有债券至到期日是一种更为有效的通胀对冲手段，因为"通货膨胀的保值主要体现在本金增值的回报。"个人可以通过经纪公司或TreasuryDirect.gov网站购得TIPS债券。

    对于股票投资而言，急剧的通货膨胀通常起到的都是负面作用，因为利率提高很可能会打击企业利润，导致其经济增长变慢。不过有少数一些股票却会有良好表现。太平洋投资管理公司董事总经理马克？凯索（Mark Kiesel）说，不妨从能源股和金属股入手，因为能源和金属价格的上涨会令其收益大增。此外还有那些拥有定价权的美国公司，比如，政府管制的公用事业公司、国内油气管线公司、特种材料生产商。可以考虑的公司有：矿业公司，如Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold、能源巨头埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）,或者同大宗商品价格有着间接关联的公司，比如Diamond Offshore Drilling、农业机械巨头迪尔公司（Deere）、种子公司孟山都公司（Monsanto）等。

    保险元素：长期国债和市政债券

    这两种债券在通货紧缩时期价格都会攀升，因为在商品和服务大幅降价、薪酬缩水的情形下，这两种债券的长期固定收益会是一笔可观的收入。尤其是美国国债，到时会很受国外投资者的青睐，从而价格受到进一步推动。

    通货紧缩型

    通货紧缩论者要构建投资组合相对更为容易：可将大部分钱购置长期美国国债，剩余的钱，一部分存现，一部分购入市政债券。

    如果大范围通货紧缩成为现实，长期国债便极有可能会升值。而与此同时，债券的固定收益同消费价格下跌的关联日益密切。

    有些投资级别的市政债券也可以发挥类似的作用，同时为高收入者带来税务方面的好处。不过切记：在通货紧缩的情况下，有些陷入困境的部门可能难以偿还以来用户收费等特定收入的债券。债券投资机构Envision Capital的总裁玛里琳？科恩（Marilyn Cohen）说，可以选择"同诸如供水与污水处理、电力等必需服务的机构或诸如法院大楼等政府必需的办公场所密切相关的投资级别债券。"

    如果你对经济的预期是通货紧缩，那么就在你的投资组合中保留大量的现金吧。把现金存在银行，在低利率、通货紧缩的环境下产生不了很大的收益，不过随着物价的下跌，现金实际上是升值的。

    保险元素：假使通胀不期而至，大宗商品期货会有最大的收益，所以应当将其作为一项保险措施。此外也要考虑购入通货膨胀保值债券，而依据Ibbotson Associates的冈博拉的意见，股票则要倾向于"必需消费品公司".如果通胀爆发，可口可乐公司（Coca-Cola）、烟草巨头奥驰亚集团（Altria）、牙膏生产商高露洁-棕榄（Colgate-Palmolive）等企业便有了定价权。

    金发女孩经济型

    可能，仅仅是可能──全世界的银行家都很了解这一点──经济既没有严重的通货膨胀也没有严重的通货紧缩。

    巴克莱（Barclays Wealth）全球投资策略主管亚伦？格威茨（Aaron Gurwitz）说，我们认为，各国央行最终极有可能将通胀率保持相对温和的水平，即介于1.5%至2.5%之间。

    AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation基金投资组合经理斯科特？沃勒（Scott Wolle）说，在"金发女孩"经济时期──经济既不过热也不过冷──"风险资产会有最好的表现，股票和带有股票性质的债券应当是关注的重点。"

    也就是说，你可以购入大量的美国大型股及小型股股票，可以通过Vanguard 500指数基金、Bridgeway小型股价值基金等基金购入；也可以通过Vanguard国际股票总指数基金（主要针对发达国家股市）、T. Rowe Price新兴市场股票基金等基金购入发达市场及新兴市场股票。

    债券部分可以选择一支基金，比如富达债券总指数基金，该基金持有高等级中期企业债券、抵押贷款及政府和政府机构债务。

    保险元素：假设关于金发女孩经济的预期是错误的，那么你需要抵御通货膨胀和通货紧缩的双重风险。可以购入大宗商品交易所买卖基金来应对通货膨胀、长期国债来应对通货紧缩。现金则是可以同时应对两种情况的法宝。