英智库：伊拉克濒临瓦解 (British Think Tank: Iraq on Verge of Collapse)

英国一个研究机构发表一份报告警告说，伊拉克面临明显的国家瓦解和分裂的可能性。设在伦敦的“查塔姆研究所”发表的报告说，伊拉克政府只是伊拉克众多“国家型”因素中的一个，已经很大程度上毫无权威，并且在许多地区毫无作用。

这份简报的起草者斯坦斯菲尔德说，伊拉克不是有“一场内战，而是有很多场内战和反叛行动”。尽管报告认为，最近的军事战术没有能够减少暴力活动，不过报告还是预测，伊拉克保安部队无法应对多国部队撤离的局面。

这个外交政策智库敦促美国和英国采取重大战略改变，建议主动接触同逊尼派和激进的什叶派教士萨德尔，解决联邦制问题和石油收入分配等问题。

A British research institute has published a report warning that Iraq faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation. The report by London-based Chatham House argues that the Iraqi government is only one of many "state-like" actors in the country and is already largely powerless and irrelevant in many areas.

The briefing paper's author, Gareth Stansfield, says that "there is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies." Although the report finds that recent military tactics have failed to decrease violence, it also predicts that Iraq's security forces would be unable to cope with the withdrawal of multinational forces.

The foreign policy think tank urges a radical change in U.S. and British strategy. It recommends reaching out to Sunnis and radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and addressing issues of federalism and the allocation of oil revenues.